Abakhiqizi Bebhethri Lithium: Abahlinzeki abaphezulu abayi-10 bokusetshenziswa kwezimboni

Sifunde kabuhlungu ku-Q3 2023 ukuthi "amaseli eBanga A" awasho lokho ocabanga ukuthi akusho. Iklayenti eMidwest ya-oda lokho elikholelwa ukuthi kwakuyi-premium LFP yemikhumbi yalo engu-35-unit forklift. Inkontileka ibhalwe ngokucacile iBanga A. Ukuhlolwa okungenayo kubukeke kukuhle. Ezinyangeni ezintathu kamuva, ukuhlolwa komthamo kubonise u-82-84% wegama{12}}akukho ndawo eduze kwama-95%+ obungawalindela kusukela ku-A{14}}yangempela. Impendulo yomphakeli? "Leli{17}}ibanga lokususa. Ngamazinga emakethe yaseShayina, -okukhiphayo kusathathwa njengesigaba esingu-A." Lowo mdlalo we-semantic ubize iklayenti lethu cishe u-$40K esigebeni sokusebenza kanye nezinyanga ezimbili zokubuyela emuva naphambili ngaphambi kokuthi sixoxisane ngesikweletu esiyingxenye.

Iqiniso Lemakethe Ngemva Kwezinombolo

Wonke umuntu ucaphuna inani lentengo yephekhi ye-BloombergNEF-$108/kWh kusukela ngasekupheleni kuka-2024, ehle ukusuka ngaphezu kuka-$1,100 ngo-2010. Leyo nombolo ivela kukho konke ukwethulwa komkhakha kanye nesitezi sabatshalizimali. Yini engashiwongo: lokho kunesisindo esikhulu kumaseli-ebanga lezimoto. Ngenkathi empeleni senza ama-RFQ amaphakethe e-forklift yezimboni ngasekuqaleni kuka-2024, izingcaphuno zabuya ku-$135-165/kWh kuye ngobunkimbinkimbi be-BMS kanye{13}}nezidingo zezinga lokushisa eliphansi. Igebe likhona ngoba izinhlelo zokusebenza zezimboni zidinga ububanzi obuhlukahlukene bezinga lokushisa lokusebenza, ukubekezelela ukujula komjikelezo ophezulu, i-BMS eqine kakhulu ezindaweni ezinokhahlo.

I-CATL iphethe u-36.8% wesabelo semakethe yomhlaba wonke ngokusho kwedatha yoCwaningo ye-SNE kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2025. Baphule umkhiqizo wonyaka ongu-300 GWh ngo-2024, okuyingqopha-mlando okungekho omunye umkhiqizi oke wafinyelela kuyo. Lezi izinombolo zangempela. Kodwa nakhu okungakutsheli leso sibalo sesabelo semakethe: Ingxenye yokuthengisa yezimboni ye-CATL isebenza ngendlela ehluke kakhulu kunebhizinisi labo lezimoto. Isikhathi sokuphendula esivela eqenjini labo lezimboni sisebenzisa izinsuku zebhizinisi ezingu-3-5 ngemibuzo eyisisekelo. Uthola ukwesekwa konjiniyela kwangempela? Lokho ngokuvamile kudinga ukwenyukela endlunkulu yase-Shenzhen, okungeza obunye ubuncane beviki. Uma kuqhathaniswa, abanye babakhiqizi baseShayina besigaba-2 esisebenza nabo baphendula emahoreni angama-24 ngoba balambele ama-oda.

I-BYD ilandela cishe u-18% wesabelo semakethe ngobuchwepheshe babo be-Blade Battery. Ukusebenza kokuhlolwa kokungena kwezinzipho kuyamangaza ngempela{2}}akukho ukushisa okushisayo, akukho mlilo, akukho ntuthu. Ukuhlanganiswa kwabo okuma mpo kusuka ezimayini ngokusebenzisa kabusha ngokwethiyori kudala izinzuzo zezindleko. Empeleni, sikubonile lokhu kusika ngezindlela zombili. Phakathi ne-Q2 2023, enye yamaphrojekthi ethu ihlangabezane nokulibaziseka kokulethwa kwamaviki angu-6 ngenxa yokuthi ukunikezwa kwempahla yangaphakathi ye-cathode ye-BYD kuthinteke kakhulu. Ngokungafani ne-CATL, okuyimithombo evela kubahlinzeki abaningi be-cathode futhi engalungisa isabelo, ukuhlanganiswa okuqondile kwe-BYD kwakusho ukuthi babengenakho ukuguquguquka. Uhlangothi olungaphendukiyo: amanani abo ahlala ezinzile kukho konke ukukhuphuka kwentengo ye-lithium carbonate ka-2022-2023 ngenkathi abanye abahlinzeki bezama ukuphinda baxoxisane ngezinkontileka.

Okubalulekile Ngempela Lapho Uhlola Laba Bahlinzeki

Ukuqhathanisa okuvamile kubheka umthamo, izitifiketi, isabelo semakethe. Lolo lwazi luwusizo ekwethulweni kwabatshalizimali. Ezinqumweni zokuthenga, izici ezihlukene zibalulekile.

Abakhiqizi baseKorea ngokuvamile basathuthukisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-LFP. Bakhe amabhizinisi abo kumakhemikhali we-NMC wezimoto. Ukushintshela ku-LFP kwashesha ngemva kokulahlekelwa isabelo semakethe saseYurophu esincintisana nabo baseShayina, kodwa ukuvuthwa kokukhiqiza kubonisa ngamanani esivuno. Imithombo yemboni iphakamisa ukuthi imigqa ye-LFP yaseKorea ikhiqiza cishe u-70% okwamanje, uma kuqhathaniswa no-95%+ kubakhiqizi abaziwayo be-LFP base-China. Lelo gebe lamaphuzu angu-25 lithinta ezomnotho zeyunithi ngezindlela ezingahlali zivela emananini e-RFQ kodwa ezibonakala ekunikezeni ukuvumelana nokuhlukahluka kwekhwalithi.

I-Panasonic igcina ukuma kwe-premium nokuvumelana kwekhwalithi ephezulu kakhulu esihlangabezane nayo. Isabelo semakethe esingu-3.7% sibonisa ukugxila kwangamabomu kunobuthakathaka bokuncintisana{2}}abajahi inani lentengo{3}}kumasegimenti azwelayo. Kuzinhlelo zokusebenza lapho ukubekezelela ukucaciswa kubaluleke ngaphezu kokuthuthukisa izindleko, i-Panasonic ihlala iyibhentshimark. Qonda nje ukuthi izikhathi zokuhola yizona ezinde kakhulu embonini futhi amanani abonisa ukuma kwawo.

Umbuzo we-Chinese Tier-2

I-CALB, i-Gotion High-Tech, EVE Energy{1}}ngayinye isebenza kububanzi obungu-50-70 GWh. Laba bakhiqizi bethula isiphakamiso senani elithakazelisayo kubathengi bezimboni. I-EVE iphethe ngokukhethekile isitifiketi se-IEC 62619, indinganiso yomhlaba wonke emboza isitoreji esimile, i-telecom, i-UPS, ama-forklift, i-AGV, nezinhlelo zokusebenza zasolwandle. Ukuqashelwa emazweni 50+ kwenza lokhu kuhlobane kakhulu nokuthengwa kwempahla kwamazwe ngamazwe.

Ukuhlola okuqotho: isigaba{2}}2 Abakhiqizi baseShayina bangaletha inani langempela uma wazi ukuthi ungafaneleka kanjani futhi ubaphathe. Ukwehluka kwekhwalithi kungokoqobo{4}sibone umkhiqizo omuhle kakhulu futhi sibone izinkinga. Umehluko oyinhloko akulona igama lenkampani, amandla eleveli yefekthri kanye nekhono lakho lokuliqinisekisa.

Isibonelo esisodwa esiphathekayo: savakashela izindawo ezimbili ezihlukene ze-EVE ngo-2023. Inkampani efanayo, ukuqina kokulawula ikhwalithi okuhluke ngokuphawulekayo. Isikhungo esihlinzeka ngama-OEM ezimoto sisebenze ngokubonakala kuqina kakhulu kunaleso esisebenzela amakhasimende ezimboni zasekhaya. Uma uthola kubahlinzeki be-tier-2, ukuhlolwa kwefekthri kubaluleke ngaphezu kwesithunzi somkhiqizo.

Isimo Sebanga A/B Akekho Osichaza Kayikho

Izimakethe zezentengiselwano zaseShayina empeleni ziqaphela izilinganiso ezinhlanu ze-LFP: Ibanga A+, Ibanga A-, Ibanga B, Ibanga C, kanye{2}}nesandla Sesibili. Lapho uthengisa kubathengi baseNtshonalanga, abahlinzeki abaningi bakwenza kube lula lokhu. U-A+ kanye no-A- kuba "iBanga A." U-B no-C baba "iBanga B." Lokhu akukona ngempela ukukhohlisa ngamabomu{9}}indaba yokuhumusha edala ukudideka kwangempela. Kodwa umthelela ongokoqobo uyafana: ucabanga ukuthi uthenga into eyodwa bese uthola enye.

Ukuhlola umzimba kuyasiza kodwa kunemikhawulo. Amakhodi e-QR aklwetshiwe aphakamisa amaseli anqatshiwe asuka esigabeni{2}}umkhiqizi ongu-1 ukuthi ngandlela thize{5}}angene e-supply chain. Ama-spot welds kufanele abonise amaphethini afanayo we-ultrasonic, hhayi ama-blob shapes angajwayelekile. Amalebula e-UL kufanele abe nama-holograms aqoshiwe-amalebula aphrintiwe ayisicaba awumgunyathi. Ukucaciswa okudinga umthamo we-3,600mAh wamaseli angu-18650 akunakwenzeka ngokomzimba; Isilinganiso esiphezulu singama-3,500mAh. Ukwehluka kwamandla kagesi angaphezu kuka-2mV phakathi kwamatheminali kubonisa izinkinga zebhalansi.

Kodwa nansi into-lawa masheke athola izinkinga ezisobala. Izinkinga zekhwalithi eyinkimbinkimbi zidinga amaphrothokholi angenayo okuhlola afanelekile anokuhlolwa kwamandla, ukukala kokuvinjelwa, kanye nokuhamba ngebhayisikili okuyisampula. Lokho kubiza imali nesikhathi. Abathengi abaningi bayayeqa. Iningi labathengi ligcina selizisola ngokweqa.

Indlela yethu yamanje: kunoma yimuphi umphakeli omusha, sidinga{0}}ukuqinisekiswa komthamo wenkampani yangaphandle kusampula yezibalo ngaphambi kokwamukela ukuthunyelwa. Izindleko zisebenzisa u-$3-5K kuye ngosayizi wesampula. Lokho kuzwakala kubiza uze ukuqhathanise negebe lokusebenza lika-$40K njengoba iklayenti lethu laseMidwest lazibonela.

Izibalo ze-ROI zidinga umongo

Ucwaningo lwe-Raymond Corporation olubonisa i-415-656% ye-ROI yokuphila konke ekuguqulweni kwe-lithium forklift lucashunwa njalo (raymondsci.com). Ukuthuthukiswa kokukhiqiza okungu-17% kanye nezibalo zekhefu lezinyanga eziyi-10-16 zivela cishe kuyo yonke indawo yokuthengiswa kwebhethri ye-lithium. Lezo zinombolo zingokoqobo. Futhi inemibandela ekuqageleni okungenzeka kungafani nokusebenza kwakho.

I-breakeven eyizinyanga ezingu-10-ezingu-16 iqala{3}}umsebenzi wamashifu amaningi ngokusetshenziswa okuphezulu. Ukusebenza-okukodwa kungase kubone ukukhokha kunwebeka kuye ezinyangeni ezingu-36-ezingu-48. Ukuthuthukiswa kokukhiqiza kucabanga ukuthi ushintsha i-asidi yomthofu nazo zonke izinguquko zayo ezihlotshaniswayo zebhethri lesikhathi sokuphumula, ukuchelela, izindleko zokulinganisa. Uma uguqula usuka ku-propane noma udizili, ukubala kubukeka kuhlukile.

Ukuqhathanisa ukusebenza kahle kwamandla kuqondile: i-lithium ifinyelela ukusebenza kahle kokushaja okungu-95-98% uma kuqhathaniswa no-75-80% we-lead-acid. Lokho kusho ukuncishiswa kokusetshenziswa kukagesi ngo-35-50%. Kodwa izindleko zikagesi zihluka kakhulu ngokwezifunda. Ku-$0.08/kWh izilinganiso zezimboni ezivamile ezingxenyeni zaseMidwest, inkokhelo iyanwetshwa. Ngamanani angu-$0.18/kWh ase-California, ukukhokhelwa kuyashesha.

Ingozi yempahla eboshiwe ayivamile ukuvela ekubalweni kwe-ROI yomthengisi. Amabhethri e-lithium empeleni anevelu eyiziro eyinsalela uma umsebenzi wakho ushintsha-ukuthutha indawo, ukushintshwa kwemodeli yebhizinisi, ukuncishiswa kosayizi wemikhumbi. I-lead-i-asidi okungenani inenani le-scrap. Ku-CFO ehlola ukuzibophezela kwempahla yeminyaka engu-7-10, lokho kuzikhethela kubalulekile.

 

Izidingo zesitifiketi Isango lokufinyelela emakethe

Ukuhlola kwe-UN38.3{1}}akuxoxiswana nganoma yiliphi ibhethri le-lithium elithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. Ukuhlola okuyisishiyagalombili okuhlanganisa ukulingiswa kokuphakama, ukuhamba ngebhayisikili elishisayo, ukudlidliza, ukushaqeka, ukujikeleza okufushane, umthelela, ukushajwa ngokweqile, nokukhipha ngempoqo. Umugqa wesikhathi usebenza amaviki angu-4-6 wezinhlelo zokusebenza ezijwayelekile. Izindleko ziyahlukahluka kodwa isabelomali esingu-$15-25K sokuthola isitifiketi sokuqala. Lonke ushintsho lwedizayini lungase lubangele ukuhlolwa kabusha.

 

I-UL 1973 ihlanganisa izinhlelo zokusebenza zamandla ezimile nezisusa eNyakatho Melika. Ngale kwesitifiketi sokuqala, i-UL idinga ukuthi -Izinkonzo Zokulandelela eziqhubekayo ezihlanganisa nokuhlolwa kwesikhungo okungamenyezelwanga. Abahlinzeki ngezinye izikhathi baba nesitifiketi se-UL kumadizayini amadala kodwa hhayi ukukhiqizwa kwamanje-qinisekisa inombolo yefayela ethile ehlanganisa ukumiswa komkhiqizo owu-odayo.

 

I-IEC 62619 isebenza njengezinga lemboni yomhlaba wonke eliqashelwa kuwo wonke amazwe 50+. Kuzicelo ezimiselwe izindawo eziningi, isitifiketi se-IEC 62619 senza ukuthobela kube lula.

 

I-EU Battery Passport iba isibopho ngo-Agasti 2025. Lokhu kudinga idatha ye-QR-yekhodi elandelekayo yomjikelezo wokuphila okuhlanganisa i-carbon footprint, iphesenti lokuqukethwe okugaywe kabusha, kanye namadokhumenti e-supply chain. Ngokusekelwe ezingxoxweni nabahlinzeki abaningi ngasekupheleni kuka-2024, iningi alilungile. Uma udayisela ezimakethe ze-EU noma uhlinzeka amakhasimende athengisayo, ukuthobela i-Battery Passport kufanele kube yingxenye yeziqu zakho zomphakeli manje, hhayi izinyanga eziyisithupha kusukela manje.

Imigomo Yenkontileka Ekuvikela Ngempela

Iseluleko esivamile-sihlanganisa umonakalo osuphelile wokulibaziseka, izimfuneko zokuhlolwa kokusebenza, iziqinisekiso zokwehliswa kwesithunzi{1}}zivela kuyo yonke inkomba yokuthenga. Ukubulawa kubaluleke ngaphezu kwesigatshana.

Izinhlinzeko zomonakalo onqunyiwe zibukeka zivikela ephepheni. Okuyiqiniso: Abahlinzeki baseShayina ngokuvamile baxoxisana ngezigatshana ze-force majeure ezibanzi ngokwanele ukumboza cishe noma yikuphi ukubambezeleka. I-COVID, ukuphazamiseka kwemikhumbi, ukushoda kwezinto ezingavuthiwe, izinguquko zenqubomgomo kahulumeni{2}sibone izinkontileka lapho ukunikezwa kwe-LD kwakungasebenzeki khona ngenxa yokucasuka{3}}. Amakhephu e-LD ngokuvamile asebenzisa u-10-15% yenani le-PO. Uma umonakalo wokulibaziseka kwephrojekthi yakho ungaphezu kwalokho, uthola umehluko ngaphandle kokunaka ulimi lwenkontileka.

Indlela ephumelela kakhudlwana: hlela izilinganiso zokukhokha ukuze ugcine amandla. Isifanekiso sethu esijwayelekile sisebenzisa idiphozi engu-30%, 30% ekuqinisekiseni ukuqala kokukhiqiza, 30% lapho siphumelele ukuhlolwa kokwamukelwa kwasembonini, 10% ngemva kokuhlolwa kokwamukelwa kwesayithi. Uma ukulethwa kushelela, usabambe u-40-70% yenani lenkontileka. Lokho kudala amandla asebenzayo angaphezu kwamalungiselelo e-LD.

Imigomo yesiqinisekiso idinga ukufundwa ngokucophelela. Ukukhangisa kwewaranti yeminyaka eyi-10-kungase kunikeze ukumiselela okugcwele kuphela iminyaka engu-1-3,{7}}okunekhava elinganiselwe ngemuva kwalokho. Isimo Sezempilo siqinisekisa-imvamisa engu-70% SOH ekupheleni kwewaranti-isidingo sokucacisa umthetho olandelwayo wokuhlola nokuxazululwa kwezingxabano. Sibonile abahlinzeki benqaba izimangalo ze-SOH ngokuphikisana nomehluko wendlela yokuhlola.

Ukukhethwa Komhlinzeki Kwehla Ngokulingana

Izinga "eziyishumi eziphezulu" alisho lutho kunokuqondanisa phakathi kwamakhono abahlinzeki kanye nezidingo zakho ezithile.

Kuzinhlelo zokusebenza ezisezingeni eliphezulu-zevolumu lapho izindleko zibaluleke kakhulu, i-CATL ne-BYD zinikeza izinzuzo zesikali kanye namanani aqinile. Lindela izikhathi ezinde zokufaneleka kanye nokuvumelana nezimo okuncane ekwenzeni ngendlela oyifisayo.

Kuzinhlelo zokusebenza ezidinga ubambiswano lobunjiniyela nokusekelwa kobuchwepheshe, i-LG Energy Solution nePanasonic ziletha izinsiza ezijulile, nakuba ngamanani entengo ephezulu kanye nezinqubo ezinde zokuhweba.

Ngezinhlelo zokusebenza{0}ezizwelayo{0}ezinhlelweni zokusebenza lapho unamandla angaphakathi okuphatha ikhwalithi, abakhiqizi baseShayina be-tier-2 abafana ne-EVE Energy noma i-Gotion bangaletha inani ngomzamo wokufaneleka ofanelekile.

Abahlinzeki abathola imiphumela engcono kakhulu kokuhlangenwe nakho kwethu yilabo abaphendula imibuzo yobuchwepheshe ngokujula kobunjiniyela kunokuphambuka kokuthengisa. Leso siginali ngesikhathi sokufaneleka ngokuvamile sibikezela ukusebenza komsebenzi kangcono kunezitifiketi noma izibalo zezabelo zemakethe.

Izinyathelo Ezisebenzayo Ezilandelayo

Uma uhlola ukuthengwa kwebhethri ye-lithium yezimboni, iziphakamiso ezimbalwa ezivela kumaphrojekthi esisebenze ngawo:

• Qala ukufaneleka izinyanga ezingu-6-9 ngaphambi kokuthenga okuhleliwe. Ukushesha ukukhetha umhlinzeki njalo kuholela ekwehleni oyozisola ngakho.
• Isabelomali sokuhlola okungenayo kuma-oda okuqala. Izindleko ezingu-$3-5K zokuqinisekisa umthamo wezinkampani zangaphandle ziwumshwalense oshibhile.
• Ungacabangi ukuthi iBanga A lisho lokho okucabangayo. Cacisa ukubekezelelwa kwamandla ngezinombolo ezinkontileka-" Okukhulu noma okulingana no-95% wamandla okuzisholo"-kunokuncika ekuqokweni kwebanga.
• Gwema isikhathi sokuthenga se-Q4 uma kungenzeka. Abakhiqizi babeka phambili unyaka wamakhasimende ezimoto{2}}wokuphela kokulethwa. Ama-oda wezimboni athathwa njengezibalulekile. Uku-oda kwe-Q1 kokulethwa kwe-Q2-Q3 ngokuvamile kusebenza kahle.
• Cela izinkomba kumakhasimende ezimboni ngokuqondile. Izinkomba zezimoto azidluliseli ezinhlelweni zokusebenza zezimboni-emaqenjini ahlukene okuthengisa, izinhlaka ezihlukene zosekelo, ukubeka phambili okuhlukile kwefekthri.

Sisebenze ngokwanele kulawa maphrojekthi ukuze sazi ukuthi izingibe ezijwayelekile zivela kuphi. Uma uzulazulaibhethri ye-lithium yezimboniukuthengwa kwempahla futhi ufuna ukuqhathanisa amanothi, siyatholakala ngezingxoxo zobuchwepheshe. Kwesinye isikhathi ukuqonda okubaluleke kakhulu kuvela ekuzweni ukuthi yini engahambanga kahle kuphrojekthi yomunye umuntu ngaphambi kokuphinda iphutha.

Lokhu kubonisa izimo zemakethe nolwazi lwabahlinzeki ngasekuqaleni kuka-2025. Imboni yebhethri ye-lithium ihamba ngokushesha{1}}iqinisekisa ukucaciswa kwamanje nezitifiketi ngokuqondile nabakhiqizi ngaphambi kokuphothula izinqumo zokuthenga.